Phased Repair of Arbitrage Window, Limited Import Growth of Lead Concentrates in June [SMM Analysis]

SMM July 20 News: According to the latest customs data, imports of lead concentrates in June 2026 were 116,000 mt in physical content, up 9,000 mt or 8.45% MoM, down 1.69% YoY. Cumulative imports of lead concentrates in January-June were 703,900 mt in physical content, down 4.95% YoY. Based on import data by country, the top three sources of lead concentrate imports in June were Russia (31,200 mt in physical content, 26.89%), Peru (19,800 mt in physical content, 17.09%), and Australia (10,200 mt in physical content, 8.76%). In June, lead concentrate imports increased MoM, mainly driven by notable growth from Peru and Russia. From the import profit margin perspective, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market in June, the SHFE/LME lead price ratio kept rising, and import losses for lead concentrates narrowed to around -200 yuan/mt. Amid a domestic ore shortage, lead concentrate TCs were further lowered, boosting domestic smelters' demand for imported ore and also contributing some growth. Entering July, domestic smelters entered planned maintenance. Coupled with persistent tight raw material supply and losses that prompted more maintenance at secondary lead enterprises, social inventory hovered around 70,000 mt. Overseas, large deliveries to warehouses for two consecutive days pushed LME inventory beyond 450,000 mt. The domestic market continued to outperform the overseas market, and lead concentrate imports remained at a slight loss. Primary lead smelters, supported by profits from by-products such as sulphuric acid, still had strong demand for ore. In July, south China entered the rainy season, leading some mines to suspend operations for maintenance, while safety and environmental protection inspections also shut down some small mines. Demand for imported lead concentrates stayed high. Meanwhile, overseas mine production and transportation recovered somewhat in Q2, and lead concentrate inventory at main ports increased to over 20,000 mt. Lead concentrate imports are expected to rise further in July. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are derived from publicly available information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.