Polysilicon Awaits Cost Meeting Plan, Module Prices Stabilize Supported by Willingness to Protect Profits [SMM Weekly Review]

Polysilicon: This week, the polysilicon price index stood at 31.65 yuan/kg, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 30.8-33 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 30.5-32 yuan/kg. Prices were relatively stable overall this week, with the market quoting atmosphere staying sluggish and the center of quotes edging lower, mainly due to downstream price cuts and sentiment. Polysilicon plants made no significant price adjustments, but news of a cost meeting scheduled for Friday surfaced early in the week, noticeably fueling a wait-and-see sentiment as the market awaited the detailed cost plan. Polysilicon production in August is expected to see a relatively significant increase driven by production ramp-ups in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia. Meanwhile, maintenance news emerged from some bases in Xinjiang. Wafer: Wafer prices continued to fall this week, with N-type 183 wafers priced at 0.8-0.824 yuan/piece, 210R wafers quoted at 0.895-0.925 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers quoted at 1.099-1.125 yuan/piece. The main reason for the drop was inventory pressure forcing several enterprises to cut prices and sell off stock. As of now, apart from two top-tier players still holding prices firm, many others have already reduced their prices to near the low end of the range. Based on current ex-works wafer selling prices, wafers of all sizes have incurred cash cost losses of about 0.01-0.02 yuan/piece. Yet even so, some enterprises still plan to ramp up production in August, and the combined production cuts remain only about 2 GW. If enterprises rely too heavily on medium and long-term policy adjustments while neglecting the short-term supply-demand balance, wafer prices may still struggle to stop falling and stabilize. Solar Cell: This week, the solar cell market showed intensified structural divergence, while the overall market remained in the doldrums. Supply-demand patterns diverged significantly between different sizes, and inventory pressure across the industry stayed high, making it difficult to reverse the overall price pressure situation in the short term. Price-wise, trends clearly diverged by size. Thanks to the postponement of India's ALMM policy and a lack of inventory support, 183-size cargo was tight, pushing the transaction range up to 0.27-0.275 yuan/W, with prices continuing to strengthen. Meanwhile, the 210-series, weighed down by high inventory, continued to weaken, with the 210R transaction range pulling back to 0.255-0.26 yuan/W. Low-price deals had already emerged in the market, though the transaction center now held at 0.26 yuan/W. The 210N transaction center shifted lower to 0.26 yuan/W, with the price range adjusting to 0.259-0.263 yuan/W, and the 0.265 yuan/W price point largely disappeared. Currently, China's module procurement demand showed no notable growth, and combined with producers' month-end push for destocking, low-price supplies of 210R and 210N are likely to continue spreading, making the price pressure pattern hard to improve in the short term. The actual industry output in July exceeded that of June, keeping overall supply high. Preliminary August production schedule plans have now been set, with the overall industry schedule being slightly lowered from July, mainly thanks to production cut plans taking effect at some producers. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously track the pace of enforcement of these production cuts to confirm the magnitude of the industry's supply contraction. Industry-wide inventory rose MoM this week, showing pronounced structural divergence. Inventory overhang was acute for 210R and 210N modules, persistently weighing on price rebounds. Only 183-size modules maintained low inventory, providing effective support to the market. The broader supply-demand mismatch was not materially alleviated and continued to suppress futures recovery. China Modules: China’s module prices showed signs of stabilization this week. Mid-year financial strain and sustained losses at some enterprises eroded the earlier sentiment of competing to sell through price cuts. The focus shifted from rushing shipments to preserving profits, allowing module prices to stabilize. Still, cheap orders persisted in the market due to the clearance rate of low-efficiency modules, and distributed prices remained highly divergent. On the centralized side, recent project tenders were limited, with demand recovering slower than expected. As of now, China’s Topcon module-182mm (distributed) prices were 0.71-0.718 yuan/W; Topcon module-210mm (distributed) prices were 0.72-0.736 yuan/W; Topcon module-210R (distributed) prices were 0.714-0.728 yuan/W. For centralized projects, 182mm module prices were 0.694-0.722 yuan/W, with 210mm modules at 0.704-0.732 yuan/W and 210R modules at 0.697-0.725 yuan/W. Inventory side, module inventory edged up this week. End-use demand was lackluster, but the start of deliveries for earlier projects kept the inventory build at module enterprises contained. FOB Module Exports: Export module prices remained in a low-level stabilization phase overall this week, though some product prices continued to slip. Despite efforts by certain producers to hold prices firm or even raise them, the majority continued prioritizing securing orders by offering discounts. This was driven by limited end-use demand release and fierce market competition. The price spread between TOPCon 3.0 and TOPCon 2.0 modules widened, reflecting divergent corporate pricing strategies. As of today, FOB export prices were $0.104-0.109/W for TOPCon-182mm modules, $0.106-0.11/W for TOPCon-210mm modules, and $0.106-0.11/W for TOPCon-210R modules. The spread between TOPCon 3.0 and TOPCon 2.0 modules widened to roughly $0.003-0.012/W. Demand side, new orders for standard TOPCon modules were limited, and overall high-power module demand was also relatively capped. BC module shipments, however, showed relative resilience, supported by distributed demand outside China. By market segment, distributed market quotes held at low levels, with a few suppliers selling cheaply under inventory and shipment pressure. Centralized market prices diverged notably: some enterprises offered more competitive quotes backed by large orders, while others maintained relatively stable quotes, factoring in expectations of higher module costs and prices following the implementation of new national standards. Module CIF Southeast Asia: This week, the Southeast Asian market experienced limited fluctuations, with low-priced orders for low-power modules emerging in some price-sensitive markets. As of today, for CIF Malaysia prices of TOPCon modules, 182mm was $0.109–0.116/W, 210mm was $0.111–0.117/W, and 210R was $0.111–0.116/W; CIF prices for rooftop TOPCon modules in Indonesia were $0.109–0.114/W. Currently, there is still some demand for low-priced orders in Malaysia, while the Indonesian market is mainly focusing on the release of government quotas in H2. In addition, overall ocean freight rates remain at a high level, pushing up the landed cost of modules to a certain extent. Indian Module: This week, the Indian module market continued to show a diverging trend. DCR modules, supported by policy access, local solar cell costs, and demand from government projects, maintained a significant premium over non-DCR modules. As of July 24, domestic DCR TOPCon module prices in India were $0.232–0.253/W, while non-DCR TOPCon module prices were $0.132–0.149/W. As ALMM List-II provided limited exemptions for some projects, non-DCR modules saw some purchase demand; however, due to the limited scope of applicable projects and end-use demand, overall prices remained at the bottom. On the shipments front, as of today, Indian DCR module shipments in July were approximately 1.6 GW, down about 30.4% from 2.3 GW in June, reflecting that both end-user acceptance and project procurement pace for high-priced modules have slowed down. European Module: This week, the European module market overall continued to operate at low levels, with European warehouse inventory and market price competition continuously putting pressure on quotes. As of July 24, Rotterdam warehouse duty-paid EXW TOPCon prices were as follows: distributed 450–475W modules at €0.1099–0.1197/W, 620–640W modules at €0.1030–0.1126/W; centralized 620–640W modules at €0.1010–0.1107/W, and 710–730W modules at €0.1018–0.1114/W. Due to relatively higher per-watt costs, distributed 450–475W modules were priced above other power segments, while summer electricity demand in Europe provided some support to the distributed market; the centralized market gradually entered the off-season for demand, with current procurement mainly consisting of periodic restocking. Affected by costs such as secondary transshipment and warehousing, prices at warehouses in Greece and Portugal were about 1.7%–2.4% higher than in Rotterdam. End-use: This week, PV modules saw both price increases and volume growth. According to SMM statistics, from July 20 to July 26, 2026, Chinese enterprises won bids for a total of 41 PV module projects, with a weekly weighted average price of 0.75 yuan/W, up 0.03 yuan/W from the previous statistical period. The total awarded procurement capacity was 3,567.35 MW, an increase of 2,084.93 MW from the previous statistical period. According to SMM analysis, the main awarded capacity in the current statistical period fell within the 500MW–1,000MW range, accounting for 82.41% of the total disclosed awarded capacity. The details by capacity range are as follows: Sections of 0MW–1MW: 10 projects, accounting for 0.12% of capacity, with an average price of 0.778 yuan/W; Sections of 1MW–6MW: 8 projects, accounting for 0.52% of capacity, with an average price of 0.733 yuan/W; Sections of 6MW–50MW: 3 projects, accounting for 1.18% of capacity, with an average price of 0.71 yuan/W; Sections of 50MW–100MW: 2 projects, accounting for 5.61% of capacity, with an average price of 0.771 yuan/W; Sections of 100MW–200MW: 3 projects, accounting for 10.16% of capacity, with an average price of 0.745 yuan/W; Sections of 500MW–1,000MW: 3 projects, accounting for 82.41% of capacity, with the average price not disclosed. According to SMM analysis, the weighted average price for the current statistical period was 0.75 yuan/W, up 0.03 yuan/W from the previous week. In terms of total awarded procurement capacity, the week recorded 3,567.35MW, an increase of 2,084.93MW from the previous statistical period. In terms of regional distribution, the region with the highest awarded capacity this week was Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, accounting for 82.41% of the total capacity, followed by Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, accounting for 5.95% of the total. During the statistical period (July 20 to July 26), key award information is as follows: In the "PowerChina Zhongxinjian Shima Bingdi Integration 2GW PV Base Project (Manasi Jieyun 098GW) EPC General Contracting Project PV Module (Section 1)", Tongwei Co., Ltd. won the bid for 980MW of PV modules. In the "PowerChina Jiangxi Institute Zhongxinjian Shima Bingdi Integration 2GW PV Base Project (Manasi Jieyun 098GW) EPC General Contracting Project PV Module (Section 2)", Xinjiang Tianfu Tianyao New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. won the bid for 980MW of PV modules. PV Glass: This week, local market quotations for PV glass saw small upward adjustments, mainly due to the sudden acceleration of production cuts in July. Meanwhile, the subsequent production cut plans for enterprises were finalised at an earlier glass conference. It is expected that in H2 2026, glass supply will continue its downward trend. With signs of recovery on the demand side, the subsequent oversupply of glass will see significant alleviation or even a turnaround, and glass inventory levels have begun to decline, with glass prices poised to rebound. As of now, mainstream transactions for 2.0mm single-layer coating in China stand at 9 yuan/m2. Film: This week, film contract prices ranged from 25,500 to 25,800 yuan/mt, with no adjustments yet. Film producers and module makers have started a new round of monthly price negotiations. Rising upstream PV-grade EVA resin prices continued to push up film production costs, prompting film producers to propose price increases in the negotiations. However, downstream module makers face profit pressure and struggle to accept significant price hikes, so upstream and downstream sides remain in a game of wrangling. The official monthly transaction price is expected to be settled tomorrow, and this round of pricing may edge up MoM. EVA: This week, the mainstream transaction range for spot PV-grade EVA resin rose to 10,200-10,300 yuan/mt, with the room for price upside narrowing. On the cost side, the recent rise in ethylene slowed down, making it difficult to further elevate EVA production costs. On the supply side, some petrochemical units switched their production schedules to PV-grade material, easing the prior supply tightness to some extent. Traders’ spot cargo quotes saw no major adjustments this week, while downstream acceptance of price hikes was limited. In the short term, the pace of PV-grade EVA price rises is expected to slow down. POE: China delivered prices for POE stood at 12,000-12,100 yuan/mt, edging up. Earlier crude oil fluctuations drove raw material costs higher, elevating POE production costs; coupled with the recent strengthening of PV-grade EVA prices providing linked support, POE quotes followed the uptrend. However, downstream POE demand growth is limited at this stage, and market acceptance of the price increases remains weak. In the short term, this round of price probes lacks substantial demand backing, leaving limited room for POE price fluctuations. High-purity quartz sand: This week, quartz sand prices remained generally stable. Current market quotes are as follows: inner-layer sand at 40,000-46,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand at 14,000-18,000 yuan/mt, and imported sand spot orders priced 50,000-53,500 yuan/mt. For crucibles: 33-inch crucibles were 6,000-6,100 yuan/piece; 36-inch crucibles were 6,500-6,800 yuan/piece. Recently, the transaction price center for domestic middle-layer and inner-layer sand edged up slightly, mainly because, following new national standards, crucible manufacturers adjusted their sand consumption ratios to ensure crucible unit yield and service life meet wafer enterprises’ procurement requirements. In contrast, outer-layer sand, affected by a structural oversupply, saw prices fall below the cost line, creating a “high-end vs. low-end divergence” across the overall quartz sand industry. Module recycling: Last week, domestic PV module recycling market prices declined slightly. Early small-form-factor modules with frames dropped by around 0.5 yuan/piece, with first-hand monofacial prices settling in the 89-95 yuan/piece range; frameless models fell by 23-25 yuan/mt, with first-hand monofacial prices falling into the 2,001-2,098 yuan/piece range. Beyond early small-size modules, large-format prices also pulled back—framed models dropped by around 0.5 yuan/piece, while frameless ones declined by about 18-25 yuan/mt. This price decline was influenced by the pullback in spot prices of major recycled metals. Last week, spot silver drifted lower, while aluminum prices maintained a fluctuating trend. According to the SMM 1# silver spot price, it pulled back from 14,589 yuan/kg on July 22 to 14,038 yuan/kg on July 29; A00 aluminum prices consolidated at highs, fluctuating from 23,170 yuan/mt on July 22 to 23,400 yuan/mt on July 29.