Review of Refined Zinc Imports and Exports in H1 2026 and Future Outlook [SMM Analysis]

SMM July 22: According to customs data, in H1 2026, the global zinc market exhibited a structural divergence characterized by high inventory in China and low inventory outside China. China’s refined zinc imports displayed a rare “one-way downward” pattern, with cumulative imports of 59,600 mt in January–June, down 68.96% YoY, bringing the absolute volume to a historical low. In stark contrast to the “collapse-style” contraction on the import side, refined zinc exports showed notable resilience in H1, with cumulative exports of 20,800 mt in January–June, up 67.8% YoY. The core drivers behind the trade shift were three main factors: frequent disruptions in overseas smelting, high operating rates at domestic smelters coupled with weak domestic demand, and the persistently inverted SHFE/LME zinc price ratio. On the import side, by source country, from January to June, Kazakhstan, Australia, and India together accounted for over 90% of total imports, with bonded Kazakh zinc being the only stable source; by trade mode, ordinary trade imports fell significantly, at just 300 mt in June; however, imports of bonded goods in transit exceeded 34,000 mt, representing 57.5% of the total, and no substantial new supply from outside China entered the domestic circulation market, leading to a pronounced decline in imports. In terms of exports by destination, they were mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia. The four major Southeast Asian countries—Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore—recorded exports of 18,700 mt from January to June, accounting for 90.1% of total exports. During H1, the delivery window for shipping to Southeast Asia had not yet fully opened, and China’s exports primarily consisted of spot zinc ingot to the region. Considering the export tariff, the main exports were #0 (99.995%) zinc ingots, which were subject to a provisional export tariff of 0%. In H2, as China smelters undergo seasonal maintenance, overseas smelters' production gradually recovers, and the peak season for galvanizing consumption in Southeast Asia arrives, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio is expected to consolidate at lows, refined zinc imports may consolidate at lows, the export window is expected to open periodically, and the full-year net import volume will shrink significantly compared to previous years.