[SMM Ex-China Copper Scrap Weekly Review] Copper prices retreated after a rapid rise, while tight supply and high premiums supported discount rates to fluctuate at highs.

SMM, July 24: This week, LME copper prices showed an overall trend of retreat after rapid rise. LME copper opened Monday at $13,524/mt, then quickly climbed to near $13,934/mt before pulling back. Influenced by the rapid mid-week rise in copper prices, the payable indicator for ex-China copper scrap experienced a slight correction; however, as copper prices pulled back on Friday, the payable indicator rebounded to levels similar to last week. In terms of prices, mainstream quotations for ex-China bare bright copper remained around 99%, with No. 1 copper quoted in the 97%-98% range and No. 2 copper floating mostly within a 96%-98.5% quotation range due to variations in cargo quality and gold and silver content. Regarding transactions, the mid-week surge in copper prices boosted suppliers’ willingness to sell to some extent, but downstream procurement sentiment remained weak, with the market still dominated by just-in-time procurement. Meanwhile, the tight supply situation of ex-China copper scrap persisted, with limited available cargo in the market, keeping suppliers’ sentiment to hold prices firm relatively strong. In addition, the recent rise in spot premiums for copper cathode provided some support for the discount rate of copper scrap, and in some markets, copper prices and discount rates even rose simultaneously. Overall, with high copper prices combined with the traditional consumption off-season, downstream orders performed averagely, buyer procurement enthusiasm was insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere remained sluggish. The current ex-China copper scrap market continues to show a weak supply-demand dynamic, with tight supply on the supply side and cautious procurement on the demand side, keeping overall market activity limited. Looking ahead to next week, with downstream orders yet to show significant improvement and copper prices staying high, the demand side is expected to remain dominated by just-in-time procurement, making a significant increase in transaction volumes difficult. Furthermore, supported jointly by tight supply of ex-China copper scrap and elevated spot premiums for copper cathode, the discount rate for ex-China copper scrap is expected to stay high. Overall, market trading next week will continue to be sluggish, while the discount rate will continue to consolidate at highs.